Individual preferences, government policy, and COVID-19: A game-theoretic epidemiological analysis.

Purpose: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic imposes serious short-term and long-term health costs on populations. Restrictive government policy measures decrease the risks of infection, but produce similarly serious social, mental health, and economic problems. Citizens have varying preferences about the desirability of restrictive policies, and governments are thus forced to navigate this tension in making pandemic policy. This paper analyses the situation facing government using a game-theoretic epidemiological model. Methodology: We classify individuals into health-centered individuals and freedom-centered individuals to capture the heterogeneous preferences of citizens. We first use the extended Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) model (adding individual preferences) and the signaling game model (adding government) to analyze the strategic situation against the backdrop of a realistic model of COVID-19 infection. Findings: We find the following: 1. There exists two pooling equilibria. When health-centered and freedom-centered individuals send anti-epidemic signals, the government will adopt strict restrictive policies under budget surplus or balance. When health-centered and freedom-centered individuals send freedom signals, the government chooses not to implement restrictive policies. 2. When governments choose not to impose restrictions, the extinction of an epidemic depends on whether it has a high infection transmission rate; when the government chooses to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), whether an epidemic will disappear depends on how strict the government's restrictions are. Originality/value: Based on the existing literature, we add individual preferences and put the government into the game as a player. Our research extends the current form of combining epidemiology and game theory. By using both we get a more realistic understanding of the spread of the virus and combine that with a richer understanding of the strategic social dynamics enabled by game theoretic analysis. Our findings have important implications for public management and government decision-making in the context of COVID-19 and for potential future public health emergencies.

Food insecurity and health outcome nexus: empirical evidence from the informal sector enterprises in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Food insecurity indicates the difficulty of constantly obtaining adequate food because of limited economic resources. Food insecurity challenges the desired health outcomes. Although extensive literature has examined the associations between food security and health, low-wage informal sector workers have been less frequently addressed in this topic. The present study has focused on food insecurity among the workers working in the informal sector enterprises who experienced entrenched disadvantage during COVID-19 and examines the relationship between food insecurity and health status as measured by self-reported physical and mental health conditions. METHODS: This study has utilized cross-sectional data collected from workers working in informal manufacturing and business enterprises in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) with eight items is used to screen for food insecurity, and the Short Form 12v2 (SF12v2) scale with 12 questions, and validated for use with Bengali respondents, is used to measure the health status of the informal workers. A health production function has been constructed where the health status (both physical and mental) of workers is associated with food insecurity and other socio-economic and health care factors. Empirical analyses of the study have included descriptive statistics, mean score comparisons, and multivariate regression analyses to identify the predictive factors of the physical and mental health status of the workers. RESULTS: A moderate to severe food insecurity is found to be responsible for the poor health status (both physical and mental) of the selected working group population. Moreover, age over 40 years, having a large family, dissatisfaction with the work place, and the prevalence of occupational health risks are linked to lower physical health, while dissatisfaction with the work place and the incidence of severe diseases contribute to poor mental health status along with food insecurity. CONCLUSIONS: Extending social and economic protection towards health coverage and basic consumption is suggested as an immediate action to save lives and ensure productivity of the informal workers. Besides, an increase in income and ensuring decent working conditions are also recommended for the health, safety and satisfaction of workers working in informal sector enterprises.

The impact of penalty and subsidy mechanisms on the decisions of the government, businesses, and consumers during COVID-19 ——Tripartite evolutionary game theory analysis

Purpose – Based on the fact that punishment and subsidy mechanisms affect the anti-epidemic incentives of major participants in a society, the issue of this paper is how the penalty and subsidy mechanisms affect the decisions of governments, businesses, and consumers during Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design/Methodology/approach - This paper proposes a tripartite evolutionary game theory, involving governments, businesses, and consumers, to analyze the evolutionary stable strategies and the impact of penalty and subsidy mechanism on their strategy selection during COVID-19. We then uses numerical analysis to simulate the strategy formation process of governments, businesses, and consumers for the results of tripartite evolutionary game theory. Findings – This paper suggests that there are four evolutionary stable strategies corresponding to the actual anti-epidemic situations. We find that different subsidy and penalty mechanisms lead to different evolutionary stable strategies. High penalties for businesses and consumers can prompt them to choose active prevention strategies no matter what the subsidy mechanism is. For the government, the penalty mechanism is better than the subsidy mechanism, because the excessive subsidy mechanism will raise the government expenditure. The punishment mechanism is more effective than the subsidy mechanism in realizing the tripartite joint prevention of the COVID-19. Therefore, the implementation of strict punishment mechanism should be a major government measure under COVID-19. Originality/value - Our paper extends the existing theoretical work. We use political economy to make the preference hypothesis, and we explicitly state the effect of subsidy and penalty mechanisms on the decision making of participants and compare their applicability. This is the work that the existing literature did not complete before. Our findings can provide an important theoretical and decision-making basis for COVID-19 prevention and control.

The economics of COVID-19: a systematic literature review

Purpose A systematic, PRISMA-guided literature review was conducted using four databases (ProQuest, PubMed, EconLit and Scopus) to analyze research published between February 2020 and August 2021. This review included 31 studies out of 1,248 that were identified. Design/methodology/approach In addition to the serious health issues it causes, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) has a destructive impact on the global economy. The objectives of this study are (1) to examine the growing literature on variations of economic factors due to COVID-19 (2) to review the literature on the governmental response to the pandemic and (3) to discover the perspective and the gaps and outline the future avenues for further research. Findings All selected studies (31) have used the macroeconomic, household and health economic factors to analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among these studies, 22 articles examined the economic consequences and macroeconomic activities, 7 analyzed microeconomic costs and healthcare trade-offs and 2 studies reviewed economic uncertainty and macroeconomic expectations. Research limitations/implications This study comprises the most relevant research articles to measure the economic consequences of COVID-19. As a result of the lockdown and other containment initiatives, price levels, employment and consumption patterns have all suffered. Practical implications Therefore, the government's requirement to develop policy tools and approaches to ensure a full recovery from the pandemic should lead to greater long-term economic resilience. Originality/value This study examines the economic implications of COVID-19, with the aim of not only analysing COVID-19's negative economic effects but also, those measures that provide new directions in the form of short-run economic impacts and policy decisions.

Exploring the Impact of Air Transport on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Australia

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all sectors of the tourism industry, particularly air transportation. However, air transport remains an important contributor to economic growth globally. Thus, this study examines whether air transport (a proxy for tourism) stimulates economic growth to validate the air-transportation-led growth hypothesis (ALGH) in the Australian context. To conduct the study, we analyse the asymmetric long-run and short-run impacts of the air passengers carried (a proxy for tourism) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Australia. We use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling approach on data for Australia from 1971 to 2019. We also examined the effects of selected control variables (i.e., energy consumption, financial development, socialisation, and urbanisation) on economic growth. In both the short and long run, we observed statistically significant asymmetric impacts of air transport on economic growth. The positive shocks in air transport propel the long-term growth of Australia's economy. Additionally, according to the findings, negative shocks of air transport have a stronger detrimental impact on economic development than positive shocks.

The role of tourism in service sector employment: Do market capital, financial development and trade also play a role?

Workers' living standards have recently deteriorated in the service sector throughout the world, although a few decades ago, service was among the fastest growing sectors in industrialised nations. However, in recent years, in service sectors tourism especially has been drying up. This paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tourism, market capital, financial development, and trade on service sector employment in Australia from the period 1991-2019. The results of the cointegration tests, notably the ARDL and NARDL bound tests, reveal that the variables are related in the long run. The positive effect of tourist arrival on service sector employment in Australia is confirmed by long-run estimates from both ARDL and NARDL approaches. Similarly, both approaches also confirm the long-run positive relation of financial development. However, while ARDL shows long-run negative and positive associations of market capital and trade, respectively, the opposite is found in the case of the NARDL approach. As a result, policy proposals like planning and initiating tools for ensuring consistent international arrivals and easing of entry requirements have been recommended by this study to assist Australia in enhancing service sector employment, thus promoting economic development.

Sero-prevalence and risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 infection in women and children in a rural district of Bangladesh: A cohort study.

Background: Bangladesh reported its first COVID-19 case on March 8, 2020. Despite lockdowns and promoting behavioural interventions, as of December 31, 2021, Bangladesh reported 1.5 million confirmed cases and 27 904 COVID-19-related deaths. To understand the course of the pandemic and identify risk factors for SARs-Cov-2 infection, we conducted a cohort study from November 2020 to December 2021 in rural Bangladesh. Methods: After obtaining informed consent and collecting baseline data on COVID-19 knowledge, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle, we collected data on COVID-like illness and care-seeking weekly for 54 weeks for women (n = 2683) and their children (n = 2433). Between March and July 2021, we tested all participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using ROCHE's Elecsys® test kit. We calculated seropositivity rates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) separately for women and children. In addition, we calculated unadjusted and adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% CI of seropositivity for different age and risk groups using log-binomial regression models. Results: Overall, about one-third of women (35.8%, 95% CI = 33.7-37.9) and one-fifth of children (21.3%, 95% CI = 19.2-23.6) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The seroprevalence rate doubled for women and tripled for children between March 2021 and July 2021. Compared to women and children with the highest household wealth (HHW) tertile, both women and children from poorer households had a lower risk of infection (RR, 95% CI for lowest HHW tertile women (0.83 (0.71-0.97)) and children (0.75 (0.57-0.98)). Most infections were asymptomatic or mild. In addition, the risk of infection among women was higher if she reported chewing tobacco (RR = 1.19,95% CI = 1.03-1.38) and if her husband had an occupation requiring him to work indoors (RR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.02-1.32). The risk of infection was higher among children if paternal education was >5 years (RR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.10-1.71) than in children with a paternal education of ≤5 years. Conclusions: We provided prospectively collected population-based data, which could contribute to designing feasible strategies against COVID-19 tailored to high-risk groups. The most feasible strategy may be promoting preventive care practices; however, collecting data on reported practices is inadequate. More in-depth understanding of the factors related to adoption and adherence to the practices is essential.

The impact of the government response on pandemic control in the long run-A dynamic empirical analysis based on COVID-19.

PURPOSE: Although the outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred on a global scale, governments from different countries adopted different policies and achieved different anti-epidemic effects. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how the government response affected the transmission scale of COVID-19 on the dynamic perspective. METHODOLOGY: This paper uses a dynamic generalized moment method to research the relationship between the government response and COVID-19 case fatality rate by using panel data from eight countries: China, United States, Canada, Australia, Italy, France, Japan, and South Korea. FINDINGS: We have the following findings: 1. Government responses have a significant impact on the scale of COVID-19 transmission. 2. The rate of increase of government responses on the growth rate of COVID-19 case fatality rate has the characteristics of cyclicity and repeatability, that is, with the increase in the growth rate of government responses, the COVID-19 case fatality rate shows the following cyclical motion law: increasing first, reaching the maximum point, and then declining, and finally reaching the minimum point and then rising; ultimately, its convergence becomes 0. The cyclical fluctuations of COVID-19 in the long term may be caused by the decline in the level of government response, the mutation of the virus, and the violation of restrictive policies by some citizens. 3. The government response has a lag in controlling the spread of COVID-19. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: Since there is a lack of literature on the impact of government responses on the development of COVID-19 from a long-term and dynamic perspective. This paper fills this gap in empirical research. We provide and expand new empirical evidence based on the current literature. This paper provides the basis for government decision-making and will help to formulate the response to other major public health events that may occur in the future.

The Impact of The Government’s COVID-19 Restriction Policies On Human Mobility: Evidence From The United States (preprint)

Purpose: – In responding to COVID-19, governments around the world have imposed various restrictions with different levels of success. One important aspect of pandemic control is the willingness of individuals to stay home when possible. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of government restrictions on human mobility in the United States Method: ology/approach – Structural equation modelling is used to explore the issue. First, we use path regression analysis and factor analysis to identify the main factors that influence mobility. Second, we use total effect decomposition to investigate the deeper relationship between government restrictions and human mobility. Finding: – Two important findings are revealed First, the economic environment is the fundamental and direct factor affecting human mobility. There is a significant negative relationship between economic environment and human mobility, meaning that where economic conditions are bad mobility is greater. Second, government restrictions and the scale of the pandemic do not directly affect human mobility. Government restriction indirectly influences human mobility through economic environment as a mediating variable. Therefore, the economic environment has a significant mediating effect. Originality/value – Existing literature lacks research on the mediating effect between government restrictions and human mobility. This paper provides new empirical evidence for the research topic by studying the mediating effect between government restrictions and human mobility. This provides policymakers with a more detailed picture of the processes through which policies operate.

The Impact of Penalty and Subsidy Mechanisms On The Decisions of Governments, Businesses, and Consumers During COVID-19 ——Tripartite Evolutionary Game Theory Analysis (preprint)

Purpose: – Based on the fact that punishment and subsidy mechanisms affect the anti-epidemic incentives of major participants in a society, the issue of this paper is how the penalty and subsidy mechanisms affect the decisions of governments, businesses, and consumers during Corona Virus Disease 2019. The goal of this paper is to understand strategic selections from governments, enterprises, and consumers to maximize their respective utility during Corona Virus Disease 2019, and the impact of penalty and subsidy mechanism on the decisions of governments, businesses, and consumers. Design: /Methodology/approach - This paper proposes a tripartite evolutionary game theory, involving governments, businesses, and consumers, to firstly analyze the evolutionary stable strategies and to secondly analyze the impact of penalty and subsidy mechanism on their strategy selection during Corona Virus Disease 2019. Thirdly, this paper uses numerical analysis to simulate the strategy formation process of governments, enterprises, and consumers in Japan and India based on their different penalty and subsidy mechanism. Findings: – This paper suggests that there are four evolutionarily stable strategies corresponding to the actual anti-epidemic situations of different countries in reality. We find that different subsidy and penalty mechanisms lead to different evolutionary stable strategies. If governments, enterprises, and consumers fighting the pandemic together, the government need to set a low subsidy mechanism and a high penalty mechanism. Originality/value - There are some limitations in the literature, such as long term strategies, rational hypothesis, and convergence path analysis in higher dimensional evolutionary game theory. This paper fills the gap and extends the theory of COVID-19 management theory. Firstly, this paper has important practical significance. This paper finds out the long-term equilibrium strategies of governments, businesses, and consumers under Corona Virus Disease 2019, which can provide an important theoretical and decision-making basis for pandemic prevention and control. Secondly, our paper extends the analytical paradigm of the tripartite evolutionary game theory. We extend the analysis of the dynamic process from the initial point to the convergence point and make a theoretical contribution to the development of high-dimensional evolutionary game theory.

Are Tourism and Energy Consumption Linked? Evidence from Australia

Tourism contributes to the growth of an economy via earning foreign currencies and employment opportunities. However, tourism also contributes to greater energy consumption because of various tourist activities such as hotel accommodations and transportation. This study investigates the long-term cointegrating relationship between international tourist arrivals and primary energy consumption in Australia. In addition, the roles of gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, financial development, and total population on energy consumption are also examined. The study covered the last four decades (1976–2018) using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, BP Statistical Review, and the World Development Indicators. Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound tests, Johansen and Juselius, Bayer-Hanck cointegration test, and several key diagnostic tests have been conducted to assess the relationship. The estimated results indicate that tourist arrivals, gross domestic product, and financial development have a significant long-run cointegrating relationship with energy consumption. Policy measures are suggested based on the findings of this study.

Knowledge on tuberculosis and utilization of DOTS service by tuberculosis patients in Lalitpur District, Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is one of the major infectious diseases and is both complex and serious. It is spread from person to person through the air, causing a public health burden, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to assess the knowledge on tuberculosis and the utilization of Directly-Observed Therapy, Short Course (DOTS) service from the public DOTS centers in Lalitpur district of Nepal. METHOD: A structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 23 DOTS centers in Lalitpur district. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was applied to assess the knowledge on tuberculosis and utilization of DOTS among people living with tuberculosis. RESULTS: Among 390 respondents, 80% of patients had knowledge of tuberculosis and 76.92% utilized the DOTS service from the DOTS center. People of higher age (50-60 years) [aOR; 13.96, 95% CI 4.79,40.68], [aOR; 10.84,95% CI 4.09,28.76] had significantly more knowledge on TB and utilization of the DOTS service compared to the younger group. Additionally, those who completed twelfth class [aOR; 2.25, 95% CI 0.46,11.07] and [aOR;2.47, 95% CI 0.51,11.28] had greater knowledge of Tuberculosis and utilization of DOTS compared to those who had not completed twelfth class. Likewise, compared to urban residents, respondents in rural areas (aOR; 0.51, 95% CI 0.27,0.97) had less knowledge of tuberculosis, (aOR; 0.57, 95% CI 0.32,1) and less chance of utilization of the DOTS service from the DOTS center. CONCLUSION: Approximately one quarter of patients did not have adequate knowledge of tuberculosis and were not utilizing the DOTS service, particularly in younger age groups, people living in a combined family, with no education, poor economic position, and from rural areas. Findings of this study revealed that some specific programs are needed for enhancing the knowledge and utilization of DOTS, particularly for those patients whose economic situations extended from low to mid range.